Putin’s Next Move: Will Russia-Ukraine War Take a Dark Turn?

The Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, and two years later it is still on, and does not look like it will end anytime soon. During the first stages of the war, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, as well as other world leaders, believed that Russia would easily triumph over Ukraine. However, Ukraine has put forth insurmountable effort coupled with stiff opposition from western powers which has transformed into a prolonged war. Now, as the Russian President puts forth plans for the next stage of the war, the world awaits to see what will happen next. 

Update on the Situation at the Battlefield

Both Russia and Ukraine have substantively suffered over the past couple years of violence. The current situation in the war has developed into one of attrition, meaning that both parties are heading towards war without decisive results. Russia managed to take control of certain strategic locations in the East of Ukraine, however, Ukraine was able to defend to power supplied to them by the West effectively which halted Russian advances. Both armies now lie in a war standstill due to the weather. It is concerning to think about the next major offense from either side. 

Key battlefield updates: 

1. Ukraine has doubled the use of drone strikes aimed at the Russian bases and everything built around them. 
2. Russian soldiers are still fighting as they have increased their amounts of military supplies aimed at Donetsk and Luhansk. 
3. Both states are scrambling to make sure all military outposts are prepared and fully supplied for the next stage of the war.

Putin’s Next Move: Concerns Regarding War and Global Relations

Considering that Russia has begun its campaign in Ukraine, Putin’s next move can either make or break Russia’s standing in the world. The possible alternatives stem from multiple strategies and can deeply impact Russia’s global standing.<br>

1. Major Offensive Strikes Selection Level

The rest of the world should surely worry about how Russia is preparing for an offensive in Ukraine in 2024. Military analysts suggest that Putin may choose to launch an ‘all-out’ attack on Ukraine. After attaining control over Ukraine, Russia can target Kharkiv or Odessa and break the western defenses.<br>

2. Decrease Resolve of NATO Countries Diplomatically

Putin is also known for employing diplomatic methods of blackmail. For instance, some experts believe that blowing up the nord stream pipeline helped Putin to employ terrorism to achieve diplomatic objectives. Additionally, If Russia is able to create enough economic turmoil in Europe by cutting off oil and gas, it can gain a fair amount of leverage to achieve military supplies from China, North Korea, or Iran without facing sanctions.<br>

3. Nuclear Winter Wagering Tactics For Anti NATO Sentiments

There is a great possibility of nuclear devastation, especially when NATO and Russia can’t seem to meet a resolution. Russia has used blackmailing tactics multiple times to frighten Ukraine and NATO into submission. While the world would love for someone to cast hope over Russia and assume that they would not use it, this can lead to a catastrophic end.

4. Political Destabilization in Ukraine

There is a chance that Russia does attempt to destabilize Ukraine internally by instigating political violence or cyberattacks. By diminishing the interagency coordination of Ukraine’s defense structures and government, Putin pays the way for an easier advancement of Russian troops. 

Ukrainian Resilience: Kyiv’s Response

Ukraine is showing remarkable resilience. The country’s strategy includes: Western Military Support: Ongoing provision of weapons from the U.S and Europe which include tanks, long-range missiles, and anti-aircraft systems. 

• Fortified Defense: Constructing new defensive lines in critical regions to contain Russian offensives. 
• Psychological Tools: The President of Ukraine has been able to garner international support and raise the spirits of his colleagues which is commendable. 

Importance of NATO and the West 

The role of NATO and Western countries is critical for this war. The U.S and Europe have spent billions of dollars in military aid, intelligence, and training to Ukraine. There are worrying signs of a loss of west unity, however, The U.S. is divided politically over providing military aid towards Ukraine. Some European nations are becoming overly concerned about the economic consequences of long-lasting war support. 

• Russia is utilizing diplomatic venues to dissuade non-aligned world countries from supporting Ukraine.
• The situation concerning Ukraine and Russia is tricky and, at times, appears dire. If help from the western side decreases, Ukraine could struggle maintaining their aggressiveness towards Russia.

Global Implications: Is There Potential For War To Escalate?

Some of the greatest evasive actions a government can take is ensure that a fray does not spike into a different region. Consider these facts:

• Potential For Belarus To Enter: One of the most concerning pieces to Russia’s puzzle is their ally, Belarus, who has been conducting exercises closer to Ukraine’s borders.
• Another Cold War: With the mired relations between Russia and the West, it is going to be tough to imagine a world without a conflict, so we may be heading into one.
• Global Economic Strain: The sanctions enforced on Russia have brought food and energy rates to a record high, which causes the greatest deficit to be experienced simultaneously throughout the globe.

What Are The More Plausible Next Steps? Possible Approaches

The Russia Ukraine conflict is bound to end at some point, but the question is how? Here are some options:

• Long Stretched War: Bloodshed for territory and neither side achieving tactical victory is something that is going to be witnessed from here on out. The never ending cycle of offer and compromise will dictate this.
• Peace Obligations: Invoke diplomacy through trust deficit to come make an agreement to not wage full blown war. As unlikely as it sounds, losing great amounts of resources makes it appear more humane.
• Putin’s Plans Realized: The day Ukraine gets deserted by the western side and lets Russia’s Putin send a blitzkrieg, will be the day the eastern side of Europe gets ridden with the Putin instigated chaos.
• Ukrainian Victory: If Ukraine manages to fight off the Russian forces and reclaim the lands they lost, it would signify a critical loss for Putin’s ambitions. 

Conclusion

Putin’s world is one which shifts constantly like a kaleidoscope. As he plans for his next move, everyone is eagerly watching him from outside. The Russia Ukraine war has transformed international relations and economies, and the next phase of this war could be even worse. The world waits with bated breath to learn what the future holds in store regarding escalation, peace talks, or other sudden shifts. Will the conflict continue to worsen, or will we see some sign of peaceful resolution? The next few weeks will prove the most decisive towards determining the outcome of this unprecedented conflict.

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